Originally Posted by Finnster (Post 354368)

Its astounding, the mess we've worked ourselves into for the last 30 yrs. I bet 2009 will go down as one of the biggest wealth transfers in history.


I'm cautiously optimistic for 2010. What I am hoping to see is moderate eco and job growth starting in the next few months. Sounds like businesses have quite a bit of cash (the ones doing well at least) so there should be some interesting activity. I think the US eco will be fairly resiliant.

However, a few things to really watch for, or at least my predictions/guesses for 2010.

A.) Its an election year. Never underestimate the stupidity of politicians to screw things up (goes for any party) and sabotage a recovery for personal gain.

B.) Smaller world economies destabilizing. Greece, Spain, Iceland, etc. Greece had Goldman Sachs papering over their debt. Makes you wonder where else this will be discovered. Latvia sounds in a bad way too. Could be tip of an iceberg.

C.) The debt. I thought last yr Obama basically had two years to run the high deficits to try and get the eco going. We'll see how it works. No doubt tax increases, spending cuts and entitlement reform are coming next year. It will be as well recieved as the austerity cuts in Greece are being recieved now. It will also be up to Congress to make the cuts into law. It will be highly unpopular, and Congress is pretty disfunctional as it is just doing popular things.

D.) People and business are going to be pissed come 2011. Job growth is prolly going to be slow even best case scenario. Raising taxes and pension ages will not go down well. Not doing it will be even worse.

Overall, I am hopeful for 2010 as far as stocks go (dep on jobs/gdp growth.) As Nov comes around, I think things will get very dicey, and 2011 could be a very ugly year. IDK if I want to be in the market then (leaning towards no until the dust settles.) Lots of variables and unknowns can occur. I bet a lot a lot of other people will keep one hand on the exit door.

Originally Posted by lutach (Post 354375)

If the real numbers (The actual known number) are posted, you can get a somewhat clear view of how deep it goes.

Official Unemployed: 14,909,693 (12:24 PM)
Actual Unemployed: 25,982,071 (12:24 PM)
Bankruptcies: 1,407,736 (12:24 PM)
Foreclosures: 857,700 (12:24 PM)

The Unemployed numbers would be much higher if the not legal to work was counted.

Also, some of the signs that things will take a while to get good is the problems with the Schools, Fire Fighter, Hospitals and all the Fed. jobs making more the $100K :lol:.

Originally Posted by lutach (Post 354371)

I don't know what you're talking about :lol:. I just got lucky in the game and I don't mess with stocks in RL anymore

My little one keeps me busy before school and after school. In between I try to relax and not let my clients bug me.

Originally Posted by Finnster (Post 354377)

My wife is a Forbes. We were sailing on the hudson once when his yacht was going by upriver (you know it when you see it.) I suggested we go by and see if cousin would let us on board and have a look around.
We just set a different tack to windward instead.

;)

Originally Posted by Finnster (Post 354376)

lol
The state and local eco's might get battered too next yr as the support from the fed gov wanes. Things will be ugly for a while I think.

Originally Posted by lutach (Post 354382)

If things do get to a point where it might get really dangerously ugly, Brasil will look good and you guys are invited.

Originally Posted by Finnster (Post 354399)

After watching that pizza vid, I've already packed a set of bags. Now I know the right town to go to too. ;)

Grab a set of wheels for Harold, and we are out of here.

Its funny, as I've heard a lot of the "undocumented" workers have been leaving the US and going back to Mex bc contruction has just died off. If Slim keeps doing as well as he is, it may be Americans sneaking across the border south looking for jobs.:lol:

Yo conoce un poco de espanol, pero no tengo ningun idea de la lengua portuguesa.

Originally Posted by lutach (Post 354407)

That video is nothing :lol:. Want to see our Paparazzi (Paparazzo)? http://ego.globo.com/Entretenimento/...0-7195,00.html.

I tell a few people, before you retire, invest in a place where you're going to enjoy life to its fullest. The answers I get are usually if $2K-5K a month is good enough. I tell them they'll live like kings in Brasil :lol:.

I lot of Brasilians went back to Brasil and I saw on the Brasilian news paper here in NJ that a lot got deported :rofl:. Free flight to Brasil is not bad at all :lol:.

There are 4 languages thought in school down there: Portuguese (Of course :lol:), English, Spanish and French. So you'll be good :lol:.

Originally Posted by Finnster (Post 354422)

Ha! I opened that link at work, had to close it quick lol! Will check out again later (another good use for the smartphone ;) )

My plan was to retire in Cape Town, SA, but you are making a very convincing arguement. The plane ride is much shorter too.

I just hope by the time I'm ready to buy a place that there hasn't already been a huge real estate rush to drive up all the prices. Europeans are starting to discover SA, and will probably continue after the world cup there this year. Then again, they may all be broke by then.

There are some absolute gems around the world if you are willing to live a little adventurously, and money goes much, much farther.



C is looking nice. We'll see where it goes. :)

Originally Posted by Finnster (Post 354433)

Man, I starting looking into the financial sector, and it really has been on fire. I said earlier I've pretty much ignored it since Oct, but its really been moving here the last 2 wks.

I'll have to start paying more attn. Personally, I would feel nervous about moving into something that has had so much movement up lately, then again you never know.

I've got $2M to play w/. I'll have to watch the banking sector more closely and rethink my bias. Had a good run w/ DPTR, but I'm out for now. It may pop, but may slide down to ~$1.

Looking at some of C's competitors, they've all had good runs, but look a bit toppy. C looks like it has some room to run, but IDK short term. Its a wild stock. Maybe wait for a bit, watch for a pullback and buy some FAZ.

Originally Posted by Finnster (Post 354624)

I'm going to be a bit silly and short FAS. Buying FAZ kinda sucks for returns. Said I wouldn't do anymore shorts, but hey, its Friday and I'm feeling dangerous.
Might be a bit too early before the Q1 is over, but we'll see. Holding onto some cash otherwise.

Edit: Meant to post this this morning. I'll post it now and see how dumb this was....

Originally Posted by Finnster (Post 354624)

I'm going to be a bit silly and short FAS. Buying FAZ kinda sucks for returns. Said I wouldn't do anymore shorts, but hey, its Friday and I'm feeling dangerous.
Might be a bit too early before the Q1 is over, but we'll see. Holding onto some cash otherwise.

Edit: Meant to post this this morning. I'll post it now and see how dumb this was....

Originally Posted by Finnster (Post 354631)

W00t.. I did this on the open and am up a whole .6%!!!! I'm rich!!!!1 yeah!1111one


anyways... feeling very silly today. I'll have to read what you posted in the other thread luciano.